Gore ra2023 riri kupinda. Nekuvandudzwa kwemitemo yekudzivirira nekudzora denda, simba rematanho ekugadzirisa kukura uye mhedzisiro yakaderera, masangano akati wandei ekutsvagisa anofungidzira kuti kukura kweGDP kweChina gore negore kuchakwira zvakanyanya gore rino. Seindasitiri huru yehupfumi hwenyika, indasitiri yemakemikari inobatanidza zviwanikwa zvakasiyana-siyana nesimba kumusoro, nepo pasi pacho paine chekuita zvakananga nezvinodiwa nevanhu zvezuva nezuva. Muna 2023, indasitiri yemakemikari inofanira kufunga nezvekuchinja-chinja kwezvikamu zvezvinhu uye kuchinja nzira, saka ndedzipi nzvimbo dzichava capital tuyere yakasimba? Kuti vagutse vaverengi, nzira dzekudyara peturu nemakemikari dzemakambani ekuchengetedza akadai seHuaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities neChina Merchants Securities dzichagadziriswa zvakakwana.
Musangano weCentral Economic Work Conference uchangobva kuitwa wakataura zvakajeka kuti panofanira kuitwa kuedza kuwedzera kudiwa kwemuno, uye kugadziriswa kwemutemo wekudzora denda munguva pfupi yapfuura kwakakurumidzisa kudzoreredzwa kwemusika wevatengi vemuno. Pasi petarisiro yakazara, mabrokerage akati wandei anotenda kuti: Muna 2023, kudiwa kwezvimwe zvigadzirwa zvemakemikari kunotarisirwa kudzoka kukura, uye ndiro itsva yemakemikari inobatanidzwa mukusimudzira simba idzva, kuchengetwa kwesimba, semiconductor neindasitiri yemauto icharamba iine bhizinesi rakakwirira. Pakati pavo, zvinhu zve semiconductor, zvinhu zve photovoltaic, zvinhu zve lithium nezvimwewo zvakakosha kuti vanoisa mari vatarise.
Zvinhu zveSemiconductor: shandisa mukana wekutsiva zvinhu zvemumba kuti ukurumidze kufambira mberi
Muna 2022, nekuda kwemamiriro ehupfumi hwepasi rose uye kuchinja-chinja kwekubudirira kwemaindasitiri uye kukanganiswa kwakawanda kwedenda iri, indasitiri yese yemagetsi yakatarisana nekumanikidzwa kwekushanda. Asi kazhinji, indasitiri yesemiconductor yeChina ichiri kukura.
Guoxin Securities Research Report yakaratidza kuti huwandu hwezvinhu zve semiconductor munyika yangu hwaingova 10% chete muna 2021, uye hwakanga husina kunaka maererano nekupfuma kwezvikamu uye kukwikwidzana. Zvisinei, nekufamba kwenguva, indasitiri yedunhu rakabatana renyika yangu ichatanga nzira yekuvandudza zvinhu yakazvimirira. Zvinotarisirwa kuti zvinhu zvemumba nemidziyo zvinogona kuwana zviwanikwa zvakawanda nemikana, uye kutenderera kwenzvimbo yemumba kunotarisirwa kupfupika.
Mumakore achangopfuura, kudiwa kwezvishandiso zve semiconductor uye misika yevatengi kwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma. Muna 2021, kutengeswa kwe semiconductor pasi rose kwakasvika mabhiriyoni 555.9 emadhora ekuAmerica, kuwedzera kwemadhora ekuAmerica mabhiriyoni 45.5 emadhora mugore ra2020; zvinotarisirwa kuramba zvichikura muna 2022, uye kutengeswa kwe semiconductor kuchasvika mabhiriyoni 601.4 emadhora ekuAmerica. Kune mhando dzakawanda dzezvinhu zve semiconductor, uye zvitatu zvepamusoro mumusika i silicon wafers, magasi, uye light molding. Pamusoro pezvo, musika we polishing fluid and polishing pads, lithography adhesive reagents, lithography, wet chemicals, uye sputtering targets ndeye 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, uye 3.0%, zvichiteerana.
Guangfa Securities Research Report inotenda kuti kupatsanura muchikamu chezvinhu zve semiconductor (makemikari emagetsi) kuburikidza nekutsvagisa kwe endogenous nekuvandudza kana kuwedzera kubatanidzwa uye kutenga ndiyo nzira yakajairika yekuti makambani emakemikari atsvage shanduko mumakore achangopfuura. Kunyange zvazvo makambani ekushandura akabudirira achigona kuwana kukoshesa kwepamusoro kwemusika uku achiwana indasitiri inokurumidza, takaunza mafungu ekukura kaviri. Mukukura nekukurumidza kweindasitiri ye semiconductor yemuno, makambani ezvinhu zvine chekuita nawo akaunzawo mukana wakanaka wekutsiva mudzimba. Mamwe makambani ane simba rakasimba reR & D uye mazinga evatengi anobudirira, uye kushandurwa nekuvandudzwa kwechigadzirwa zvinotarisirwa kugovera kukura nekukurumidza kweindasitiri ye semiconductor.
Ping An Securities Research inoshuma kuti kune zvinhu zvakawanda zvakaita se "silicon cycle" uye macroeconomic cycles, uye indasitiri ye semiconductor inotarisirwa kudzikira muna 2023.
Western Securities Research Report inotenda kuti kuwedzera kwekudzora kutengesa kunze kwenyika kweUS kuchakurumidzisa kushandiswa kwezvinhu zve semiconductor zvemuno. Vane tariro nezvezvinhu zve semiconductor, zvikamu nezvimwe zvine chekuita nazvo, uye musika we silicon carbide.
Zvinhu zve Photovoltaic: Musika wePOE wemabhiriyoni gumi wakamirira kutanga kushanda
Muna 2022, pasi pekusimudzirwa kwemutemo wenyika yangu, huwandu hwezvinhu zvitsva zvinoiswa muindasitiri yemagetsi ezuva nezuva yakawedzera zvakanyanya, uye kudiwa kwefirimu remagetsi ezuva nezuva kwakawedzerawo.
Zvigadzirwa zvemafirimu e-photovoltaic glue zvakakamurwa kuita mhando mbiri: ethylene-ethyl acetate community (EVA) uye polyolefin elastomer (POE). EVA, sezvinhu zvemafirimu e-photovoltaic glue pari zvino, ine mwero mukuru wekushandiswa kwekunze kwenyika, uye ine nzvimbo yakakura yekushandiswa mune ramangwana. Panguva imwe chete, zvinotarisirwa kuti kudiwa kweEVA mumunda wefirimu re-photovoltaic glue munyika yangu muna 2025 kunogona kusvika 45.05%.
Imwe POE inogona kushandiswa pamagetsi emagetsi, mota, tambo, furo, midziyo yemumba nedzimwe nzvimbo. Parizvino, firimu reglue remapurasitiki rema photovoltaic rave nzvimbo huru yekushandiswa kwemagetsi e ...
Zvisinei, nekuda kwekuti maitiro ekugadzira POE ane zvipingamupinyi zvakakura, pari zvino, makambani emuno haana kugona kwePOE, uye kushandiswa kwese kwePOE munyika yangu kunoenderana nekutenga zvinhu zvinobva kunze kwenyika. Kubva muna 2017, makambani emuno akagadzira zvigadzirwa zvePOE zvakatevedzana. Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry nemamwe makambani akazvimirira anotarisirwa kuwana nzvimbo yePOE yemuno mune ramangwana.
Zvinhu zvebhatiri reLithium: kutumirwa kwezvinhu zvikuru zvina kwakawedzerwa zvakanyanya
Muna 2022, musika wekuchengetera simba remotokari itsva dzemagetsi nemabhatiri e lithium muChina wakaramba wakakwira, zvichiita kuti kutumirwa kwezvinhu zvemabhatiri e lithium kuwedzere zvakanyanya. Sekureva kwedata reChina Automobile Association, kubva muna Ndira kusvika Mbudzi 2022, kugadzirwa nekutengesa kwemotokari itsva dzemagetsi emuno kwakapedza mamiriyoni 6.253 uye mamiriyoni 6.067, zvichiteerana, kuwedzera kweavhareji pagore, uye mugove wemusika wakasvika 25%.
Sangano reHigh-Tech Industry Research Institute (GGII) rinotarisirwa kutengesa mota itsva dzemagetsi dzinopfuura mamiriyoni 6.7 muna 2022; zvinotarisirwa kuti musika wemotokari itsva dzemagetsi muChina uchapfuura mamiriyoni mapfumbamwe muna 2023. Muna 2022, mwero wekukura kwekutumirwa kwemabhatiri e lithium muChina unotarisirwa kudarika 100%, mwero wekukura kwekutumirwa kwemabhatiri emagetsi unotarisirwa kudarika 110%, uye mwero wekukura kwekutumirwa kwemabhatiri e lithium anochengetedza simba unodarika 150%. Kukura kukuru kwekutumirwa kwemabhatiri e lithium kwakatungamira zvinhu zvina zvikuru zve positive, negative, diaphragm, electrolyte, nezvimwe zvinhu zve lithium bhatiri zvakaita se lithium hexfluorophosphate ne copper foil kusvika padanho rakasiyana.
Data rinoratidza kuti muhafu yekutanga yegore ra2022, China Lithium Electric Electronic Materials yakatumira matani 770,000, kuwedzera kwe62% pagore; kutumirwa kwezvinhu zvisina simba zvemagetsi kwaive matani 540,000, kuwedzera kwe68% pagore; 55%; kutumirwa kwemagetsi emagetsi kwaive matani 330,000, kuwedzera kwe63% pagore. Pakazara, muna 2022, kutumirwa kwemabhatiri mana makuru e lithium muChina kwakaramba kuri kufambira mberi.
GGII inofanotaura kuti musika wemabhatiri e lithium emuno uchapfuura 1TWh muna 2023. Pakati pawo, kutumirwa kwemabhatiri emagetsi kunotarisirwa kudarika 800GWh, uye kutumirwa kwemabhatiri ekuchengetedza simba kuchapfuura 180GWh, izvo zvichaita kuti kutumirwa kwemabhatiri mana makuru e lithium kuwedzere.
Kunyangwe mitengo yelithium ore nelithium salt yakaderera muna Zvita 2022. Zvisinei, mukuona kwevatengesi, izvi zvinonyanya kukonzerwa nemhedzisiro yekunze kwemwaka, uye "nzvimbo yekukwira" kwemitengo yelithium haisati yasvika.
Huaxi Securities inotenda kuti kuchinja kwemutengo wemunyu we lithium ndiko kuchinja kwakajairika kwemwaka wepamusoro weindasitiri, kwete "kukwira kwemitengo". Shen Wanhongyuan Securities inotendawo kuti nekuburitswa kwakawedzerwa kwesimba rekugadzira zvinhu zvisina kugadzirwa muna 2023, purofiti yekambani ye lithium battery chain chain ichaenderera mberi kubva kumusoro kusvika pasi. Zhejiang Business Securities inotenda kuti kubvumidzwa kwemari ye lithium kwakakura kupfuura zvinodiwa muhafu yechipiri ya2023.
Nguva yekutumira: Ndira-10-2023