Gore ra2023 rinopinda mukati. Nekukwenenzverwa kwemitemo yekudzivirira nekudzora denda, simba rezviyero zvekudzikamisa kukura uye yakaderera base mhedzisiro, akati wandei masangano ekutsvagisa anofungidzira kuti gore-pagore kukura kweGDP kuchawedzera zvakanyanya gore rino.Seindasitiri yembiru yehupfumi hwenyika, indasitiri yemakemikari inobatanidza zviwanikwa zvakasiyana-siyana uye simba kumusoro, nepo kudzika kwakadzika kwakanangana nezvinodiwa zvezuva nezuva zvevanhu.Muna 2023, indasitiri yemakemikari inofanirwa kufunga nezvese kutenderera kutenderera kutenderera uye track switch, saka ndedzipi nzvimbo dzichava dzakasimba capital tuyere?Kuitira kugutsa vaverengi, nzira dzekudyara peturu nemakemikari emakambani ekuchengetedzeka akadai seHuaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities neChina Merchants Securities acharongwa zvizere.
Musangano wazvino weCentral Economic Work Conference wakataura zvakajeka kuti kuedza kunofanirwa kuitwa kuwedzera kudiwa kwemba, uye kugadzirisa kwazvino kwemutemo wekudzora denda kwawedzera kudzoreredza kwemusika wevatengi vepamba.Pasi petarisiro yakazara, mabrokerage akati wandei anotenda kuti: Muna 2023, kudiwa kwezvimwe zvigadzirwa zvemakemikari kunotarisirwa kudzoreredza kukura, uye iyo nyowani kemikari zvinhu ndiro inobatanidzwa mukusimudzira simba idzva, kuchengetedza simba, semiconductor uye indasitiri yemauto icharamba ichiripo. chengetedza bhizinesi repamusoro.Pakati pavo, semiconductor zvinhu, photovoltaic zvinhu, lithium zvinhu uye zvichingodaro zvinonyanya kukodzera kutariswa kwevanoisa mari.
Semiconductor zvinhu: tora mukana wekutsiva mudzimba kuti ukurumidze kufambira mberi
Muna 2022, nekuda kwemamiriro ehupfumi hwepasirese uye shanduko yebudiriro yeindasitiri uye kudzokororwa kwedenda, indasitiri yese yemagetsi yakatarisana nekumanikidza kushanda.Asi kazhinji, indasitiri yeChina semiconductor ichiri kukura.
Guoxin Securities Research Report yakaratidza kuti huwandu hwenzvimbo yezvigadzirwa zve semiconductor munyika yangu hwaingova gumi muzana muna 2021, uye hwakashomeka maererano nehupfumi hwechikamu uye kukwikwidza.Nekudaro, nekufamba kwenguva, indasitiri yedunhu yakabatana yenyika yangu ichatanga munzira yekuzvimiririra innovation.Zvinotarisirwa kuti zvekushandisa zvemumba nemidziyo zvinogona kuwana zvimwe zviwanikwa nemikana, uye kutenderera kumwe kutenderera kunotarisirwa kupfupika.
Mumakore achangopfuura, kudiwa kwekushandisa semiconductor uye misika yevatengi kwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma.Muna 2021, kutengesa kwepasi rose semiconductor kwakasvika 555.9 bhiriyoni emadhora ekuAmerica, kuwedzera kweUS $ 45.5 bhiriyoni pamusoro pe2020;inotarisirwa kuramba ichikura muna 2022, uye kutengesa semiconductor kuchasvika US $ 601.4 bhiriyoni.Kune akawanda marudzi e semiconductor zvinhu, uye matatu epamusoro pamusika mugove masilicon wafers, magasi, uye chiedza kuumba.Pamusoro pezvo, musika wekugezesa mvura yekupolisha nemapedhi ekupukuta, lithography adhesive reagents, lithography, makemikari akanyorova, uye sputtering targets i7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, uye 3.0%, zvichiteerana.
Guangfa Securities Research Report inotenda kuti kucheka mumunda we semiconductor zvinhu (makemikari emagetsi) kuburikidza nekutsvagisa endogenous nekusimudzira kana kuwedzera kusanganisa uye kutora ndiyo yakajairika modhi yemabhizinesi emakemikari kutsvaga shanduko mumakore achangopfuura.Nepo makambani eshanduko akabudirira achigona kuwana misika yepamusoro apo achiwana indasitiri inokurumidza, isu takaunza mafungu ekukura kwehuviri.Muchikamu chekusimudzira nekukurumidza kweindasitiri yezvemukati semiconductor, makambani ane hukama akaunzawo mukana wakanaka wekutsiva mudzimba.Mamwe makambani ane simba rakasimba reR & D uye akabudirira nhanho dzevatengi, uye yakabudirira shanduko yechigadzirwa uye kusimudzira zvinotarisirwa kugovera kukurumidza kusimudzira kweiyo semiconductor indasitiri.
Ping An Securities Research inoshuma kuti pane zvakawanda zvinhu zvakaita se "silicon cycle" uye macroeconomic cycles, uye iyo semiconductor indasitiri inotarisirwa kudzikira kunze muna 2023.
Iyo Western Securities Research Report inotenda kuti kuwedzera kweUS kutengesa kunze kwenyika kuchamhanyisa iyo yepamba imwe nzira ye semiconductor zvinhu.Ivo vane tarisiro nezve semiconductor zvinhu, zvikamu uye zvine chekuita nemidziyo, uye silicon carbide musika.
Photovoltaic Material: Mabhirioni gumi -level POE musika wakamirira kupaza
Muna 2022, pasi pekusimudzirwa kwemutemo wenyika yangu, nhamba yekuiswa kutsva muindasitiri yephotovoltaic yakawedzera zvakanyanya, uye kudiwa kweiyo photovoltaic glue firimu kwakawedzera.
Photovoltaic glue firimu mbishi zvinhu zvakakamurwa kuita mhando mbiri: ethylene -ethyl acetate nharaunda (EVA) uye polyolefin elastomer (POE).EVA, seyazvino mahara emagetsi ephotovoltaic glue firimu, ine dhigirii yakakwira yekutsamira kune kunze kwenyika, uye ine nzvimbo yakakura yekugara mune ramangwana.Panguva imwecheteyo, zvinotarisirwa kuti kudiwa kweEVA mumunda we photovoltaic glue firimu munyika yangu muna 2025 inogona kusvika kusvika 45.05%.
Imwe mainstream raw material POE inogona kuiswa kune photovoltaic, mota, tambo, kupupa furo, midziyo yemumba nemimwe minda.Parizvino, photovoltaic packaging glue firimu rave nzvimbo huru yekushandisa yePOE.Zvinoenderana ne "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Road Mepu (2021 Edition)", chikamu chemusika wePOE glue firimu uye foam polyethylene (EPE) glue firimu muna 2021 yakawedzera kusvika 23.1%.Mumakore achangopfuura, nekuramba kuchikwira mukubuda kwezvikamu zve photovoltaic munyika yangu uye kupfuurira kupindira kwePOE mu photovoltaic glue film, kudiwa kwePOE yepamba kwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma.
Zvisinei, nokuti kugadzirwa kwePOE kune zvipingamupinyi zvakakwirira, panguva ino, makambani epamba haana simba rePOE, uye kushandiswa kwePOE yose munyika yangu kunobva kune kunze kwenyika.Kubva 2017, mabhizinesi epamba akatevedzana akagadzira zvigadzirwa zvePOE.Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry uye mamwe mabhizinesi akazvimirira anotarisirwa kuwana kutsiva mudzimba kwePOE mune ramangwana.
Lithium bhatiri zvinhu: kutumirwa kwezvinhu zvina zvakakosha kwakawedzera kuwedzerwa
Muna 2022, mota nyowani yeChina yemagetsi uye lithium bhatiri simba rekuchengetedza musika yakaramba yakakwira, ichityaira kutumirwa kwezvinhu zvebhatiri zve lithium kuwedzera zvakanyanya.Maererano neChina Automobile Association data, kubva muna Ndira kusvika munaNovember 2022, kugadzirwa uye kutengeswa kwemotokari nyowani dzesimba dzakapedza 6.253 miriyoni uye 6.067 miriyoni, zvichiteerana, avhareji yegore-pa-gore kuwedzera, uye musika mugove wakasvika 25%.
Iyo High-Tech Indasitiri Research Institute (GGII) inotarisirwa kutengesa zvinopfuura 6.7 miriyoni epamba magetsi emagetsi ekutengesa mu2022;Zvinotarisirwa kuti musika mutsva weChina wemotokari yemagetsi uchapfuura 9 miriyoni muna 2023. Muna 2022, China's lithium bhatiri kutakura kukura mwero unotarisirwa kudarika 100%, chiyero chekukura kwemabhatiri emagetsi anotarisirwa kudarika 110%, uye chiyero chekukura. yesimba rekuchengetedza lithium bhatiri kutakura inodarika 150%.Kukura kwakakosha kwekutakura bhatiri relithium kwafambisa zvinhu zvina zvakakosha zvezvakanaka, zvisina kunaka, diaphragm, electrolyte, uye zvimwe zvinhu zvebhatiri zve lithium se lithium hexfluorophosphate uye foil yemhangura kune madhigirii akasiyana.
Dhiyabhorosi inoratidza kuti muhafu yekutanga ye2022, China Lithium Electric Electronic Materials yakatumira 770,000 matani, kuwedzera kwe62% gore-on-gore;kutumirwa kwezvinhu zvakashata zve electrode zvaive 540,000 matani, kuwedzera kwe68% gore-pa-gore;55%;electrolyte kutumirwa kwaiva 330,000 matani, kuwedzera 63% gore-pa-gore.Pazere, muna 2022, kutumirwa kwese kweaya makuru e lithium bhatiri muChina yakaramba iri maitiro ekukura.
GGII inofanotaura kuti misika yemumba ye lithium bhatiri ichapfuura 1TWh muna 2023. Pakati pavo, kutakura kwebhatiri remagetsi kunotarisirwa kudarika 800GWh, uye kutakura kwebhatiri rekuchengetedza simba kuchapfuura 180GWh, iyo inotyaira kutumirwa kwese kwemabhatiri mana makuru e lithium kuwedzera kuwedzera. .
Kunyange zvazvo mitengo ye lithium ore uye lithium salt yakawira muna December 2022. Zvisinei, mumaziso evatengesi, izvi zvinonyanya kukonzerwa ne-off-season effect, uye "inflection point" yemitengo ye lithium haisati yasvika.
Huaxi Securities inotenda kuti kuchinja kwemutengo welithium munyu ndiko kushanduka kwakajairika kwemwaka wepamusoro weindasitiri, kwete "inflection point".Shen Wanhongyuan Securities anotendawo kuti nekumwe kuburitswa kwesimba rekugadzira zvigadzirwa muna 2023, maitiro epurofiti yelithium bhatiri indasitiri chain chain ichaenderera kubva kumusoro kusvika pasi.Zhejiang Bhizinesi Securities inotenda kuti kureurura kwemuganho kwe lithium zviwanikwa zvakakura kupfuura zvinodiwa muhafu yechipiri ya2023.
Nguva yekutumira: Jan-10-2023