Kubva pakatanga Kusawirirana pakati peRussia neUkraine, Europe yakatarisana nedambudziko remagetsi. Mutengo wemafuta negasi rechisikigo wakakwira zvakanyanya, zvichikonzera kuwedzera kukuru kwemitengo yekugadzira zvinhu zvine chekuita nemakemikari.
Pasinei nekushaikwa kwezviwanikwa, indasitiri yemakemikari yeEurope ichiri kuita 18 muzana yekutengesa makemikari pasi rose (inenge 4.4 trillion yuan), iri panzvimbo yechipiri mushure meAsia, uye ndiyo musha weBASF, iyo inogadzira makemikari akawanda pasi rose.
Kana kuwanikwa kwemakemikari emumvura ari kumusoro kwerwizi kuri panjodzi, mitengo yemakambani emakemikari ekuEurope inokwira zvakanyanya. China, North America, Middle East nedzimwe nyika dzinovimba nezviwanikwa zvadzo uye hadzinyanyi kukanganiswa.
Munguva pfupi, mitengo yemagetsi muEurope ingangoramba yakakwira, ukuwo makambani emakemikari ekuChina achava nemukana wakanaka wemitengo sezvo denda muChina richivandudzika.
Zvino, kumabhizinesi emakemikari ekuChina, ndeapi makemikari achaunza mikana?
MDI: Musiyano wemutengo wakawedzera kusvika pa1000 CNY/MT
Makambani eMDI ese anoshandisa nzira imwe chete, nzira ye liquid phase phosgene, asi zvimwe zvigadzirwa zvepakati zvinogona kugadzirwa ne coal head ne gas head maitiro maviri. Panyaya yekwakabva CO, methanol ne synthetic ammonia, China inonyanya kushandisa coal chemical production, nepo Europe neUnited States dzichinyanya kushandisa natural gas production.
Parizvino, huwandu hweMDI muChina hunosvika 41% yehuwandu hwese hwepasi rose, ukuwo Europe ichisvika 27%. Pakupera kwaKukadzi, mutengo wekugadzira MDI negasi rechisikigo sezvinhu zvakagadziriswa muEurope wakawedzera neinenge 2000 CNY/MT, ukuwo pakupera kwaKurume, mutengo wekugadzira MDI nemarasha sezvinhu zvakagadziriswa wakawedzera neinenge 1000 CNY/MT. Musiyano wemutengo ungangoita 1000 CNY/MT.
Ruzivo rwepakutanga runoratidza kuti zvinhu zvakatengeswa kunze kwenyika neChina zvakaita zvinopfuura 50%, kusanganisira huwandu hwezvinhu zvakatengeswa kunze kwenyika muna 2021 hwakasvika 1.01 miriyoni MT, kukura kwegore negore kwe65%. MDI zvinhu zvinotengeswa pasi rose, uye mutengo wepasi rose une hukama hwakakura. Mutengo wepamusoro wekunze kwenyika unotarisirwa kuwedzera kukwikwidzana kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika uye mutengo wezvigadzirwa zvekuChina.
TDI: Musiyano wemutengo wakawedzera kusvika pa1500 CNY/MT
Kufanana neMDI, makambani epasi rose eTDI anoshandisa nzira yephosgene, anowanzo tevedzera nzira yephosgene yechikamu chemvura, asi zvimwe zvigadzirwa zvepakati zvinogona kugadzirwa nemusoro wemarasha uye musoro wegasi maitiro maviri.
Pakupera kwaKukadzi, mutengo wekugadzira MDI negasi rechisikigo sezvinhu zvakagadziriswa muEurope wakawedzera neinenge 2,500 CNY/MT, nepo pakupera kwaKurume, mutengo wekugadzira MDI nemarasha sezvinhu zvakagadziriswa wakawedzera neinenge 1,000 CNY/MT. Musiyano wemutengo wakawedzera kusvika painenge 1500 CNY/MT.
Parizvino, simba reTDI reChina rinoita 40% yesimba rese repasi rose, uye Europe ine 26%. Saka, kukwira kwemitengo yepamusoro yegasi rechisikigo muEurope kuchaita kuti mutengo weTDI wekugadzira uwedzere neanenge 6500 CNY / MT.
Pasi rose, China ndiyo inonyanya kutengesa zvinhu zveTDI. Zvichienderana nedata rezvemitero, zvinhu zveTDI zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika muChina zvinosvika 30%.
TDI chigadzirwa chekutengeserana pasi rose, uye mitengo yepasi rose ine hukama hwakakura. Mitengo yakakwira yekunze kwenyika inotarisirwa kuwedzera kukwikwidzana kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika uye mutengo wezvigadzirwa zvekuChina.
Asidhi yeFormic: Inoshanda nesimba, mutengo wakapetwa kaviri.
Asidhi yeFormic ndeimwe yemakemikari anoshanda nesimba gore rino, yakawedzera kubva pa4,400 CNY/MT pakutanga kwegore kusvika pa9,600 CNY/MT munguva pfupi yapfuura. Kugadzirwa kweasidhi yeFormic kunonyanya kutanga kubva pa methanol carbonylation kuenda ku methyl formate, uye yozobva yaita hydrolyzes kuenda ku formic acid. Sezvo methanol ichiramba ichitenderera mukuita kwe reaction, zvinhu zve formic acid i syngas.
Parizvino, China neEurope dzine 57% uye 34% yesimba rekugadzira formic acid pasi rose zvichiteerana, ukuwo kunze kwenyika kune anopfuura 60%. Muna Kukadzi, kugadzirwa kweformic acid munyika kwakadzikira, uye mutengo wakakwira zvakanyanya.
Kubudirira kukuru kwemutengo weasidhi yeFormic acid pasinei nekushaikwa kwayo kwakanyanya kukonzerwa nematambudziko ekupa zvinhu muChina nekune dzimwe nyika, hwaro hwacho huri dambudziko regesi kunze kwenyika, uye chinonyanya kukosha, kudzikira kwekugadzirwa kweChina.
Pamusoro pezvo, kukwikwidzana kwezvigadzirwa zvemakemikari emarasha zviri pasi pemvura kunofadzawo. Zvigadzirwa zvemakemikari emarasha zvinonyanya kuve methanol ne synthetic ammonia, izvo zvinogona kuwedzerwa ku acetic acid, ethylene glycol, olefin ne urea.
Zvichienderana nekuverenga, mukana wemutengo wekugadzira marasha e methanol unodarika 3000 CNY/MT; mukana wemutengo wekugadzira marasha e urea unodarika 1700 CNY/MT; mukana wemutengo wekugadzira marasha e acetic acid unodarika 1800 CNY/MT; Kushata kwemutengo we ethylene glycol ne olefin mukugadzira marasha kunobviswa zvachose.
Nguva yekutumira: Gumiguru-19-2022