Indasitiri yemakemikari iri kusangana nekuwedzera kwemitengo "kwenhoroondo" muna 2025, zvichikonzerwa nekugadziriswazve kwekuchinja kwekudiwa kwezvinhu uye kugoverwa patsva kwemutengo muchikamu chekutengesa. Pazasi pane ongororo yezvinokonzera kuwedzera kwemitengo, pfungwa dziri shure kwekusiyana kwepurofiti, nzira dzekugadziriswazve kweindasitiri, uye mikana yekudyara mari.
I. Zvinhu Zvinokonzera Kukwira Kwemitengo Zvakadzama
1. Shanduko Dzinochinja-chinja Muzvinhu Zvisina Kugadzirwa
- Kusawirirana kwemafuta asina kucheneswa: Kudzikira kwekugadzirwa kweOPEC+ pamwe chete nekukura kushoma kubva kuvagadziri vasiri veOPEC kwakaita kuti Brent crude irambe iri pamusoro pemadhora zana pabhareri.
- Kudiwa kukuru kwezvinhu zvitsva zvesimba: Mitengo yeLithium carbonate (yemhando yeindasitiri yemabhatiri eLFP) yakakwira ne120% YoY, nepo DMC electrolyte solvent yakapinda nepakati pe ¥10,000/ton.
- Mari yakajeka yekabhoni: Mitengo yekabhoni yeCBAM yeEU ikozvino inovhara makemikari ekutanga senge synthetic ammonia nemethanol.
2. Kusimba Kwemagadzirirwo Ezvinhu
- Kutamiswa kwenzvimbo dzekuEurope dzinokwanisa kugadzirwa: BASF nedzimwe hofori dzakavhara 30% yenzvimbo dzekugadzirwa kweammonia muGermany, zvichitamisa kugadzirwa kwayo kuenda kuUS Gulf Coast.
- Kugadziriswa kweChina kwechikamu chekugovera zvinhu 2.0: Zvinodiwa zvekuvandudza nharaunda uye tekinoroji mumaindasitiri edhayi netitanium dioxide zvakakurumidzisa kubuda kwevagadziri vadiki kusvika pakati nepakati.
- Zvipingamupinyi zvezvekufambisa zvinhu munyika: Dambudziko reGungwa Dzvuku rakakonzera kuwedzera kwe300% kwemitengo yekutumira zvinhu muAsia neEurope, zvichiwedzera kupararira kwemitengo yezvinhu zvinotakurwa zvakanyanya zvakaita seTDI.
3. Mari Inopfuura Kubva Pakuchinja Kwetekinoroji
- Kutengeswa kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa nemakemikari: Mitengo yePLA inodhura ne40% kupfuura PE yechinyakare, Apple neTesla vachibvumirana kwenguva refu.
- Kuwanikwa kwemakemikari e semiconductor: Mitengo ye hydrofluoric acid yemagetsi yakachena zvikuru yadarika $50,000/tani, ne15% yepamusoro-soro kupfuura dzimwe nzira dzekuJapan/South Korea.
II. Mepu yeKusiyana kwePfuma
| Chikamu | Shanduko yeROE (2024 vs. 2025) | Kuwedzera Kwemitengo | Vatyairi Vanokosha |
| Zvinhu Zvitsva zveSimba | +8.2pct→ 21.5% | 35-50% | Kubudirira kwemabhatiri emhando yepamusoro |
| Makemikoro Akawanda | -3.5 muzana → 6.8% | 10-15% | Dambudziko remutengo wenzira yemarasha |
| Makemikoro Akakosha | +5.1 chikamu → 18.3% | 25-40% | Kudiwa kwezvinhu zvemotokari zviri nyore |
| Makemikoro ekurima | +2.3pct → 12.7% | 18-22% | Kugamuchirwa kwezvirimwa zveGMO + kusanaya kwemvura muSouth America |
III. Kuchinja Kwemutengo Munzvimbo Dzese Dzekutengesa
1. Varidzi vezvinhu zveUpstream (semuenzaniso, vagadziri vephosphate nelithium) ndivo vane simba guru pamitengo, makambani akaita seYuntianhua achiwana >50% yemitengo yese muchikamu chimwe chete chekota.
2. Zvikamu zvepakati pemvura zvine zvipingamupinyi zvakawanda:
- Fluoropolymers: Mari yekugadzirisa zvinhu zvePVDF separator inosvika ¥80,000/tani.
- Makemikari ane kuchena kwakanyanya: Zvinodiwa zvekuchenesa isopropanol zvakakwira kubva pa99.99% kusvika pa99.9999%.
3. Vanopa Zvinhu Zvinogadzirisa Mashandiro Avo: Makambani akaita seCovestro akatanga nzira dze "kubhadhara-kushanda", zvichiwedzera kuchengetedza vatengi ne30%.
IV. 2025 Pfungwa Dzakakosha Dzekubudirira
1. Mahwindo eKutsiva Tekinoroji:
- Kubudirira kwemitengo kwaEthane Cracking kwaderera, nePDH project ROI ichidzikira pasi pe5%.
- Mari yekugadzira BDO inodzikira ne25% zvichienzaniswa nemitengo yemafuta.
2. Kuenzanisazve Kwematunhu:
- Nzvimbo yeMiddle East ine sarufa-makemikari: SABIC yeSaudi yakavaka fekitari ine 2M ton pagore ine sulfuric acid inodhura zvishoma.
- Mapendi ekuSoutheast Asia: Nippon Paint Vietnam inoshanda ne120% yekushandiswa kwependi.
3. Kuongororwazve kweESG:
- Mapurojekiti e green hydrogen-based ammonia anowana mari yekuwedzera kukosha katatu.
- EU yarambidza zvigadzirwa zvine PFAS >60% CAGR yezvimwe zvinotsiva.
V. Matrix yeSarudzo dzekudyara mari
Zvinhu Zvinokosheswa Pakugovera Zvinhu Zvine Hurongwa:
- Zvinhu zvinodzivirira zvakanyanya: Aramid honeycomb cores, silicon carbide precursors.
- Zvinokanganisa mashandiro: Kugadzirwa kweadiponitrile kubva kuPlasma, kushandurwa kweCO₂-ku-DMC.
- Magamba akavanda: Vatambi vanobvisa mifananidzo, vanovhara midziyo yemuchadenga.
Zviziviso zveNjodzi:
- US inoisa mutero we15% pazvinhu zvakagadzirwa nemakemikari zvemuChina (kubvira pakupera kwekota yechitatu 2025).
- Kubudirira kwemabhatiri eSodium-ion kunogona kuderedza kudiwa kwezvinhu zve lithium.
Indasitiri iyi iri kugadziriswa zvakanyanya kubva mugore ra2008. Makambani ane hunyanzvi hwekugadzira tekinoroji uye kugona kwayo kubatanidza zvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana, pamwe nemakambani ane marezenisi mashoma ekugadzira, ndiwo anonyanya kutariswa. Pakati pekushanduka-shanduka kwemitengo, makambani anochengetedza kutengeserana kwezvinhu mukati memazuva makumi matatu acharatidza kusimba kwekuwana purofiti.
Nguva yekutumira: Chivabvu-30-2025