Indasitiri yemakemikari iri kusangana ne "nhoroondo" yekukwira kwemutengo muna 2025, inotungamirwa nekugadziridzwa kwezvekudiwa-kudiwa kwemasimba uye kugovaniswazve kwekukosha mukati mekutengesa cheni. Pazasi pane ongororo yevatyairi vari kuseri kwemutengo wekuwedzera, pfungwa iri kumashure kwepurofiti divergence, nzira dzekugadziridza indasitiri, uye mikana yekudyara.
I. Deep-Seated Drivers of Price Surges
1. Kuchinja kwekuchinja mune Raw Materials
- Crude oiri yekupa-inoda kusaenzana: OPEC + kugadzirwa kwekucheka kwakasanganiswa nekukura kushoma kubva kune vasiri-OPEC vagadziri vakachengeta Brent crude iri pamusoro pemadhora zana / mbiya.
-Kuputika kudiwa kwezvinhu zvitsva zvesimba: Lithium carbonate (giredhi remaindasitiri emabhatiri eLFP) mitengo yakakwira 120% YoY, ukuwo DMC electrolyte solvent yakapaza ¥10,000/ton mark.
- Yakajeka kabhoni mutengo: Iyo EU's CBAM kabhoni tariffs ikozvino inovhara ekutanga makemikari senge synthetic ammonia uye methanol.
2. Structural Supply-Side Tightness
-Kutamiswa kweEuropean: BASF nedzimwe hofori dzakavhara 30% yeGerman synthetic ammonia kugona, ichichinja kugadzirwa kuUS Gulf Coast.
- China's supply-side reform 2.0: nharaunda uye tekinoroji yekusimudzira zvinodiwa mudhayi uye titanium dioxide maindasitiri akamhanyisa kubuda kwevadiki-kusvika-pakati vanogadzira.
- Geopolitical logistics mabhodhoro: Dambudziko reGungwa Dzvuku rakakonzera kukwira kwe300% muAsia-Europe mutengo wekutumira, kuwedzera kwemitengo kupararira kwezvigadzirwa zvinobata-bata seTDI.
3. Mutengo Kupfuura-Kuburikidza kubva kuTechnological Shifts
-Kutengeserana kwezvinhu zvebio-based: Mitengo yePLA inoraira 40% premium pane yechinyakare PE, neApple neTesla kukiya muzvibvumirano zvenguva refu.
- Localization yemakemikari e semiconductor: Ultra-pure electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid mitengo yakadarika $ 50,000 / toni, ine 15% yepamusoro pane dzimwe nzira dzeJapan / South Korea.
II. Profit Divergence Mepu
| Segment | ROE Shanduko (2024 vs. 2025) | Mutengo Kupararira Kuwedzera | Key Drivers |
| Zvishandiso Zvitsva zveMagetsi | +8.2pct→ 21.5% | 35-50% | Solid-state bhatiri kubudirira |
| Bulk Chemicals | -3.5pct → 6.8% | 10-15% | Marasha-based nzira mutengo kusaipa |
| Specialty Chemicals | +5.1pct→ 18.3% | 25-40% | Zvigadzirwa zvemotokari zvakareruka zvinoda |
| Agro-makemikari | +2.3pct → 12.7% | 18-22% | GMO kutorwa kwezvirimwa + South America kusanaya kwemvura |
III. Kutama Kwekukosha Kupfuura Nezvekugovera
1. Upstream Resource Holders (semuenzaniso, vagadziri vephosphate & lithium) vanotonga simba remitengo, nemakambani akaita seYuntianhua achiwana > 50% gross margins muchikamu chimwe chete.
2. Midstream High-Barrier Segments:
- Fluoropolymers: PVDF separator zvinhu zvekugadzirisa mari inorova ¥80,000/tani.
- Ultra-yakakwirira-kuchena makemikari: Semiconductor-giredhi isopropanol kuchena zvinodiwa zvakasimuka kubva 99.99% kusvika 99.9999%.
3. Downstream Customization Providers: Makambani akaita seCovestro akatanga "kubhadhara-ku-performance" modhi, achiwedzera kuchengetwa kwevatengi ne30%.
IV. 2025 Key Breakthrough Points
1. Technology Kutsiva Windows:
-Ethane yekupwanya mutengo mukana wakatetepa, nePDH chirongwa ROI ichidonha pasi pe5%.
-Bio-based BDO mitengo yekugadzira inodonha 25% vs. petroleum nzira.
2. Rebalancing yedunhu:
- Middle East sulfur-chemical hub: Saudi's SABIC yakavaka 2M ton / gore inodhura sulfuric acid chirimwa.
- Kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweAsia machira epakati: Nippon Paint Vietnam inoshanda pa120% kugona kushandiswa.
3. ESG Revaluation:
-Green hydrogen-based ammonia mapurojekiti anogashira 3x kukosha kwemari.
- EU inorambidza paPFAS-ine zvigadzirwa dhiraivha> 60% CAGR yedzimwe nzira.
V. Investment Decision Matrix
Strategic Allocation Priorities:
- High-barriers zvinhu: Aramid huchi cores, silicon carbide precursors.
- Maitiro anovhiringidza: Plasma-based adiponitrile synthesis, CO₂-ku-DMC shanduko.
- Akavanzika makwikwi: Photoresist strippers, aerospace-giredhi sealants.
Njodzi Yengozi:
- US inoisa gumi neshanu muzana mutero paChinese bio-based zvinhu (inoshanda Q3 2025).
-Sodium-ion bhatiri kubudirira kunogona kudonha lithium zvinhu zvinodiwa.
Indasitiri iyi iri kugadziridzwa zvakanyanya kukosha cheni kubvira 2008. Makambani ane musiyano wetekinoroji uye vertical kusanganisa kugona, pamwe nevatambi ve niche vane marezinesi ekugadzira mashoma, ndiwo anonyanya kutariswa. Pakati pekuwedzera kwemutengo kushanduka, mafemu anochengetedza mutengo wekutengesa pasi pemazuva makumi matatu acharatidza kusimba kwepurofiti.
Nguva yekutumira: May-30-2025