Kunyangwe hafu yechipiri ya2022, makemikari emagetsi uye zvimwe zvinhu zvakapinda muchikamu chekugadzirisa, asi vaongorori veGoldman Sachs mushumo yazvino vachiri kusimbisa kuti zvinhu zvakakosha zvinotaridza kukwira kwemakemikari emagetsi nezvimwe zvinhu hazvina kushanduka, zvicharamba zvichiunza kudzoka kwakajeka. gore rinouya.
NeChipiri, Jeff Currie, director weGoldman Sachs Commodity Research, naSamantha Dart, director wezvekutsvagisa gasi rechisikigo, vanotarisira kuyerwa kwezvinhu zvakakura seindasitiri yemakemikari, zvinoreva kuti S&P GSCI Total Return Index inogona kuwana imwe 43%. muna 2023 kumashure kwe20% pamwe nekudzoka gore rino.
(S&P Kospi Total Commodities Index, kunobva: Kuisa mari)
Goldman Sachs anotarisira kuti musika muchikamu chekutanga cha2023 ungangove nemapundu mumamiriro ekuderera kwehupfumi, asi kupihwa kwemafuta negasi rechisikigo kucharamba kuchikwira.
Pamusoro pekutsvagisa kwemutengesi, capital iri kushandisawo goridhe chairo nesirivheri kuratidza tarisiro yayo yenguva refu pamusoro pezvigadzirwa.Zvinoenderana nedata rakaiswa mari neBridge Alternative, makoreji gumi neshanu anotarisa pamusika wekutengesa gore rino, saizi yemidziyo inotungamirwa ne50% kusvika $20.7 bhiriyoni.
Goldman Sachs akagumisa kuti pasina mari yakakwana yekugadzira hupfumi hwekugadzira, zvigadzirwa zvicharamba zvichiwira mumamiriro ekushomeka kwenguva refu, uye mutengo ucharamba uchikwira uye uchichinja zvakanyanya.
Panyaya yezvinangwa chaizvo, Goldman Sachs anotarisira kuti mafuta asina kuomeswa, parizvino ari kutenderera madhora makumi masere padhiramu, kukwira kusvika pamadhora zana neshanu panopera gore ra2023;uye mutengo wekuyeresa gasi chaiwo weAsia unogonawo kukwira kubva pamadhora makumi matatu nematatu/miriyoni kusvika pamadhora makumi mashanu nematatu.
Munguva pfupi iri kutevera, kwave kune zviratidzo zvekupora mumusika unokwanisa, uye makemikari ave achiwedzera kumusoro.
Musi waZvita 16, pakati pe110 zvigadzirwa zvichitariswa zveZhuochuang Information, 55 zvigadzirwa zvakawedzera mukutenderera uku, zvichiverengera 50.00%;26 zvigadzirwa zvakachengetwa zvakatsiga, zvichiverengera 23.64%;29 zvigadzirwa zvakadonha, zvichiverengera 26.36%.
Kubva pakuona kwezvakagadzirwa zvigadzirwa, PBT, polyester filament, uye benhypenhydronic zviri pachena zvakadzoserwa.
PBT
Munguva pfupi yapfuura, mitengo yemusika yePBT yakakwira, uye purofiti yakawedzera.Kubva muna Zvita, indasitiri yekutanga yakatanga yakaderera kutungamira kune vagadziri venzvimbo inventory yakasimba, uye mune mbishi BDO inokwevera kumusoro kuvhiyiwa, iyo yekupedzisira kutya kutora zvinhu pfungwa yakawedzera, PBT musika nzvimbo inopa yakasimba, mutengo wakakwira zvishoma, iyo indasitiri. purofiti yakapinduka.
PBT pure resin price trend chart muEast China
POY
Mushure me "Golden Nine Silver Gumi", kudiwa kwepolyester filaments kwakaderera zvakanyanya.Vagadziri vakaenderera mberi nekuita purofiti yekusimudzira, uye tarisiro yekutengeserana inoramba ichidzika pasi.Pakupera kwaMbudzi, kutarisa kwePoy150D transaction yaive 6,700 yuan/ton.MunaDecember, sezvo iyo yekupedzisira inoda yakadzoka zvishoma nezvishoma, uye muenzaniso mukuru wepolyester filaments wakanga wakakura mukuyerera kwemari, vagadziri vaitengesa nemitengo yakaderera, uye mushumo wakasimudzwa mumwe mushure meumwe.Vashandisi vepasi vainetsekana kuti mutengo wekutenga munguva inotevera wakawedzerwa.Mhepo yemusika wepolyester filament yakaramba ichikwira.Pakazosvika pakati paZvita, mutengo wePoy150D waive 7075 yuan/ton, kuwedzera kwe5.6% kubva pamwedzi wapfuura.
PA
Musika wepamba webenhynhydr wapera kweinoda kusvika mwedzi miviri, uye musika waunza yekupedzisira -decline mukudzokororwa.Kubva zvapinda svondo rino, zvakakanganiswa nekudzoreredzwa kwemusika webenhypenichydr, purofiti yeindasitiri yemumba yebenhypenhydrate yave nani.Pakati pavo, purofiti yakakura yeyakavakidzana nebenhypenhydrate sampuli yekugadzirwa i132 yuan/tani, kuwedzera kwe568 yuan/tani kubva Zvita 8, uye kudzikira kuri 130.28%.Mutengo wezvigadzirwa zvakadonha, asi musika webonalide wakagadzikana uye wawedzera, uye indasitiri yachinja kubva mukurasikirwa.Mari yakawandisa yemuenzaniso wepyrine i190 yuan/ton, kuwedzera kwe70 yuan/ton kubva muna Zvita 8, uye kudonha kwe26.92%.Imhaka yekuti mutengo weindastiri yezvakagadzirwa wakawedzera, ukuwo mutengo wemusika webenic anhydride wakakwira zvakanyanya, uye kurasikirwa kweindasitiri kwakadzikira.
Kutaura chokwadi, kune vamwe vanoongorora zvino vanofunga kuti kuderera kwehupfumi kwave kusingatarisirwi.Ed Morse, mukuru wezvekutsvagisa zvinhu paCitigroup, akataura svondo rino kuti shanduko inogona kuitika munzira yemisika yezvinhu, ichiteverwa nekuderera kwepasirese, inogona kutyisidzira kirasi yeasset.
Ihwohusiku hwemangwanani, takamirira kuti kuda kudzika, maererano naYouliao.Muna 2013, kudiwa kweChina kwakakanganiswa nedenda, ukuwo inflation yakakwira zvishoma nezvishoma yakadzvanyirira kudiwa kwemhiri kwemakungwa.Kunyange zvazvo misika inotarisira kuti Fed chiyero chekukwira chichaderera, asi kukanganisa kwehupfumi hwechokwadi kuchabuda zvishoma nezvishoma, zvichiita kuti kuwedzere kuderera mukukura kwekuda.Kusunungurwa kwegwaro rekudzivirira denda reChina kwakapa simba rekupora, asi huwandu hwekutanga hwehutachiona hunogona kuramba huchiunza zvipingamupinyi zvenguva pfupi.Kupora muChina kunogona kutanga muchikamu chechipiri.
Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-22-2022