Kunyangwe hafu yechipiri yegore ra2022, makemikari esimba nezvimwe zvinhu zvakapinda muchikamu chekugadzirisa, asi vaongorori veGoldman Sachs mumushumo wazvino vachiri kusimbisa kuti zvinhu zvikuru zvinosarudza kukwira kwemakemikari esimba nezvimwe zvinhu hazvina kuchinja, zvichaunza mhedzisiro yakanaka gore rinouya.
NeChipiri, Jeff Currie, director weGoldman Sachs Commodity Research, naSamantha Dart, director we natural gas research, vanotarisira kuti kuyerwa kwezvinhu zvikuru zvakaita semaindasitiri emakemikari kuratidzwe, zvinoreva kuti S&P GSCI Total Return Index inogona kuwana imwe 43% muna 2023 mushure me20% plus return gore rino.
(S&P Kospi Total Commodities Index, tsime: Investing)
GMukuru Sachs anotarisira kuti musika muchikamu chekutanga chegore ra2023 ungangove nematambudziko mukuderedza hupfumi, asi kuwanikwa kwemafuta negasi rechisikigo kucharamba kuchikwira.
Pamusoro pesangano rekutsvaga remutengesi, mari iri kushandisawo goridhe nesirivha chaiyo kuratidza tariro yayo yenguva refu pamusoro pezvinhu. Sekureva kwedata rakaiswa neBridge Alternative, makoreji gumi nemashanu epamusoro anotarisa pamusika wezvinhu gore rino, hukuru hwezvinhu zvinotarisirwa ne50% kusvika $20.7 bhiriyoni.
Goldman Sachs akagumisa kuti pasina mari yakakwana yekugadzira zvigadzirwa zvakawanda, zvinhu zvicharamba zvichishomeka kwenguva refu, uye mutengo ucharamba uchikwira uye uchichinja-chinja zvakanyanya.
Panyaya yezvinangwa chaizvo, Goldman Sachs anotarisira kuti mafuta asina kucheneswa, ari pari zvino ari pamadhora makumi masere pabharero, achakwira kusvika pamadhora zana nemashanu panosvika pakupera kwegore ra2023; uye mutengo wegasi rechisikigo rekuAsia unogona kukwirawo kubva pamadhora makumi matatu nematatu pamamiriyoni kusvika pamadhora makumi mashanu nematatu.
Munguva pfupi iri kutevera, kwave nezviratidzo zvekupora mumusika une hunyanzvi, uye makemikari awedzera kukwira.
Musi wa16 Zvita, pakati pezvigadzirwa zana negumi zvinotariswa neZhuochuang Information, zvigadzirwa makumi mashanu neshanu zvakawedzera muchikamu chino, zvichisvika 50.00%; zvigadzirwa makumi maviri nematanhatu zvakaramba zvakagadzikana, zvichisvika 23.64%; zvigadzirwa makumi maviri nepfumbamwe zvakadonha, zvichisvika 26.36%.
Kubva pamaonero ezvigadzirwa zvakasiyana, PBT, polyester filament, uye benhypenhydronic zviri pachena kuti zvakawanikwa.
PBT
Munguva pfupi yapfuura, mitengo yemusika wePBT yakakwira, uye purofiti yakawedzera zvakare. Kubva muna Zvita, indasitiri yekutanga yakatanga kutungamira kudiki kune vagadziri vezvinhu zvakasara, uye mukusimudzira mashandiro eBDO, kutya kwekupedzisira kwekutora zvinhu kwakawedzera, kuwanikwa kwePBT mumusika kwakaderedzwa, mutengo wakakwira zvishoma, purofiti yeindasitiri yakachinja.
Chati yemitengo yePBT pure resin muEast China
POY
Mushure me "Golden Nine Silver Ten", kudiwa kwepolyester filaments kwakadzikira zvakanyanya. Vagadziri vakaramba vachiita purofiti, uye chinangwa chekutengeserana ichi chinoramba chichidzikira. Pakupera kwaMbudzi, chinangwa chekutengeserana kwePoy150D chaive 6,700 yuan/tani. Muna Zvita, sezvo kudiwa kwekupedzisira kwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma, uye modhi huru yepolyester filaments yaive yakawanda mumari, vagadziri vaitengesa nemitengo yakaderera, uye mushumo wacho wakasimudzwa mumwe mushure meumwe. Vashandisi vepasi vainetseka kuti mutengo wekutenga munguva yapashure wakawedzera. Mamiriro emusika wepolyester filament akaramba achikwira. Pakati paZvita, mutengo wePoy150D waive 7075 yuan/tani, kuwedzera kwe5.6% kubva pamwedzi wapfuura.
PA
Musika wemuno webenhynhydr wapera kwemwedzi inoda kusvika miviri, uye musika wacho wave nekudzikira kukuru kwekudzoka. Kubva zvatanga vhiki rino, zvichikanganiswa nekudzokera kwemusika webenhypenichydr, purofiti yeindasitiri yemuno yebenhypenhydrate yakawedzera. Pakati pazvo, purofiti yese yekugadzirwa kwesample yebenhypenhydrate iri pedyo i132 yuan/ton, kuwedzera kwe568 yuan/ton kubva munaZvita 8, uye kudzikira kwe130.28%. Mutengo wezvinhu zvakagadziriswa wadzikira, asi musika webonalide wagadzikana uye wadzoka, uye indasitiri yachinja kubva pakurasikirwa. Purofiti yese yesample yepyrine i190 yuan/ton, kuwedzera kwe70 yuan/ton kubva munaZvita 8, uye kudzikira kwe26.92%. Izvi zvinonyanya kuitika nekuti mutengo weindasitiri yezvinhu zvakagadziriswa wadzoka, nepo mutengo wemusika webenic anhydride wakakwira zvakanyanya, uye kurasikirwa kweindasitiri kwakadzikira.
Kutaura chokwadi, kune vamwe vaongorori vanofunga kuti kukanganisa kwehupfumi hwenyika kwave kusingakosheswi. Ed Morse, mukuru weongororo yezvinhu kuCitigroup, akataura vhiki rino kuti kuchinja kunogona kuitika mumisika yezvinhu, zvichiteverwa nekuderera kwehupfumi hwenyika, kwaizoisa njodzi huru kuboka rezvinhu.
Yava nguva yemangwanani, yakamirira kuti kudiwa kupere, sekureva kwaYouliao. Muna 2013, kudiwa kweChina kwakakanganiswa nedenda iri, ukuwo kukwira kwemitengo kwakadzika zvishoma nezvishoma kwakaderedza kudiwa kwekunze kwenyika. Kunyangwe musika uchitarisira kuti kukwira kwemitengo yeFed kuchaderera, asi kukanganisa hupfumi hwechokwadi kuchabuda zvishoma nezvishoma, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwekukura kwekudiwa. Kudzikira kwemutemo wekudzivirira denda weChina kwakakurudzira kupora, asi kukwirira kwekutanga kwehutachiona kuchiri kukonzera zvipingamupinyi zvenguva pfupi. Kupora muChina kunogona kutanga muchikamu chechipiri chegore.
Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-22-2022